Forecast of the Onset Date of SW Monsoon 2019 over Kerala
IMD has forecasted that the southwest monsoon onset in 2019 is likely to be slightly delayed. It is likely to set over Kerala on 6th June with a model error of ± 4 days.
Southwest monsoon sets over Kerala on 1stJune with a standard deviation of about 7 days. The event marks the start of rainy season over the region and as the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards.
This year, the statistical model forecast suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed. The southwest monsoon onset is likely to set over Kerala on 6th June with a model error of ± 4 days.
Source : IMD